Mike Harvey of the UK’s Times Online ran an article today with the headline, "Time is running out for Blu Ray format."
Harvey reported on the buzz at the CES in Las Vegas, and there apparently wasn’t much buzz for Blu Ray.
Many commenters on the article supposed that owning a physical disc is feels much better than downloading content. Others pointed to the impressive high definition quality of Blu Ray pictures as the saviour of the format.
I agree with Harvey however that time is running out for Blu Ray. One commenter pointed out that VHS won the VHS v Betamax war on the back of the US porn industry. Likewise, DVD also "got a leg up" from said industry adoption. If that’s an indicator of future market trends, then online is obviously where we’re headed.
I recently put together a Internet connected Windows Media Center and started to explore all of the content opportunities that exist online. The Media Center is hooked up to our plasma TV of course, and it serves as our main source of TV, DVD and Video content.
To summarise what I found about the content available online in brief:
- Bitorrent is an extremely viable alternative for downloading "’on demand" TV and Movie content – Main drawback, it is illegal.
- Apple iTunes offers high quality movie downloads and they can be played through Windows Media Center with a plugin – Main drawback – It’s still expensive (Iwould think that the absence of DVD packaging, distribution and transport should reduce the cost by at least $10).
- Bigpond Movies and Apple iTunes offer 24 hour DRM based high quality movie rentals by download – Main drawback – Drawbacks, limited and late selection (i.e. Blockbuster gets them first).
Prior to owning a Windows Media Center, I had Foxtel and often watched movies through Foxtel Box Office.
We found that downloaded content in all of these formats was more than acceptable. Blu Ray aficionados would say, "But the quality is nowhere near as good as Blu Ray." But to us, it just doesn’t matter. We watch a movie to enjoy a story, not to count pixels. We usually don’t watch them more than once.
The choice of format will be determined by the WIIFM (What’s In It For Me?) factor. And really, even though we have a big HD TV, it doesn’t bother me that the movie has some compression, lower quality sound or a few less pixels. To me, both formats offer a great experience. What matters to me is convenience and cost.
Format choice = Convenience / Price
For me, the convenience of downloading a movie – even if it takes 5 hours to do it – is worth more than going to the movie store. 9 years ago downloading music was a similar experience, but today it’s a no brainer! Today, the huge majority of music consumption is done online (not necessarily sales of). Imagine how stupid it would be to introduce new mass market physical Audio CD format now…
One commenter from England nailed Blu Ray’s missed opportunity:
Nick Dixon, Sutton Coldfield, England
Sony not only lost 3 years, they lost 3 years of economic boom time. They also lost a 3 year lead on developing technologies.
In the last 3 years, bittorrent technology has developed to the point where it could be used to kill off Blu Ray. iTunes has commenced the delivery of high quality movie content via the Internet. Other services like Bigpond Movies have also started offering downloads.
Sure, broadband access in many places might need to do a bit of catch up, but movie downloads are now well and truly happening and they will only get better. Consumer demand for faster broadband is increasing and it will be fulfilled.
Ultimately, like the Audio CD, the Digital Video Disc and Blu Ray is now doomed to the sidelines. People will still buy physical discs, but they will never be ubiquitous like Records, Audio Tapes, CDs and DVDs once were.
The market will remian fragmented and it’s unlikely that there will ever be a dominant content format for movies ever again.